Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. FCSB end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb44b731f170ef7cf9cda38a74d68b4918fb7063abdcd12ad55b2263e2b8922ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 3,090$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.51 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed No | 66c | 813.52$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 30c | 605.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 78c | 595.45$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 411.73$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 65c | 409.19$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 379.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 229$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933a…d3c1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 80c | 170.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…b50dbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…a0dbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2c…910ebacked Yes | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 80c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 66c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. FCSB end in a draw?this page
- Will FCSB win on 2025-11-27?No won
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.