MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb46d6a65e23e4356eb2379f97c5e4bd040cad8f5fe92830a66f5f35089a43510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed New York Yankees | 39c | 7,777$3,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.03 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 6,897$4,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 3,470$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.32 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 40c | 1,357$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.74 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,149$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.62 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 40c | 1,097$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 983.6$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.6 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 39c | 889.99$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.1 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 861$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.79 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 685.03$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 646.34$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.07 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 37c | 589$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.68 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 38c | 581.97$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.97 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 39c | 470.07$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 399.63$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 389.14$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 338.94$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 38c | 299$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Yankees | 30c | 275.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed New York Yankees | 41c | 159.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 38c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 97.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 30c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…5ccabacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Yankees | 40c | 46.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 38c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed New York Yankees | 29c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 36.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed New York Yankees | 40c | 34.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed New York Yankees | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked New York Yankees | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x548e…ba7abacked New York Yankees | 41c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.