MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16fd5a1f1284108973a50777e098315781a23711a531bbccb878d0dc75f97e08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 54c | 7,777$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.55 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 3,428$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 47c | 1,473$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.59 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,055$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.5 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 945$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.3 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 939.1$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 823.66$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 742.72$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.93 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 730.31$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 597.41$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 527.72$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 374.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 372.52$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 22c | 326.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 29c | 299.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 77c | 292$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 72c | 286.63$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 252.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 241$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…3a77backed Over | 55c | 229.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 51c | 194.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 149.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 73c | 109.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 53c | 75.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 49c | 73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 67.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 44c | 63.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 44c | 56.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…6b78backed Under | 46c | 54.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 52c | 52.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…bf5cbacked Over | 62c | 41.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 36.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 51c | 34.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 46c | 32.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Over | 53c | 30.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 56c | 26.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 52c | 26.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 53c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548e…ba7abacked Over | 54c | 19.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 76c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.