TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Boston Red Soxof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees31c63,022$19,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,492.5310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked Boston Red Sox69c51,095$35,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,839.4226056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Boston Red Sox52c23,065$11,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,071.093435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees48c16,202$7,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7771,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees16c13,141$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.458,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Boston Red Sox54c11,587$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,287.398149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees47c11,511$5,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,410.224,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees50c11,338$5,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,668.774,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Boston Red Sox53c9,527$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,463.2879442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…3992backed Boston Red Sox69c7,937$5,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.3215659%92 W · 64 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Boston Red Sox50c6,836$3,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.511,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5674…2ff4backed Boston Red Sox69c6,349$4,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.2612759.8%76 W · 51 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox67c5,833$3,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.442,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New York Yankees0c5,656$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.378762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4861…3aaebacked Boston Red Sox69c4,762$3,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.1912759.1%75 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5a…597abacked New York Yankees14c4,497$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.568729.9%26 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b9…04f6backed New York Yankees14c4,484$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.033828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Boston Red Sox49c3,674$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.7419950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox53c3,540$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.152,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Yankees24c3,395$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.9195045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Boston Red Sox49c3,181$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.535276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.8wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+45.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed New York Yankees3c3,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed New York Yankees48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20089153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees41c2,473$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.0612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked New York Yankees48c2,322$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.7248147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees31c2,273$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.158,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees51c2,196$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.15,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed New York Yankees53c2,134$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13115447.4%73 W · 81 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed New York Yankees3c1,567$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed New York Yankees1c1,205$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed New York Yankees50c1,189$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.6977951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees50c1,176$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.773,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked New York Yankees35c1,143$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Boston Red Sox69c1,065$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.961,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees18c1,046$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.234,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox50c1,024$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5122,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Boston Red Sox47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed New York Yankees48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48094549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x085c…99e3backed New York Yankees50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024448.4%118 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de9…5289backed New York Yankees49c945.62$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.7654945.4%249 W · 300 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees50c622.25$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.676,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees4c603.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.862,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7a…5a0fbacked New York Yankees4c580.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees6c564.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.14,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Yankees27c561.8$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.731,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5142…0845backed Boston Red Sox49c541$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.916946.4%32 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees50c479.04$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.522,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked Boston Red Sox52c471.15$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1510145.5%46 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed New York Yankees8c462$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9460043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees49c451.01$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.242,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ec…3b76backed Boston Red Sox49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1610750.5%54 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed New York Yankees47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1881,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked New York Yankees52c377.4$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2515848.1%76 W · 82 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Yankees4c320.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.741,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New York Yankees51c319.98$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.191,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked New York Yankees50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15028147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees21c287.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.854,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d8…b596backed New York Yankees19c265$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.354438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb92…b221backed Boston Red Sox48c259.27$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5137944.3%168 W · 211 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed New York Yankees51c257$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0770744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed New York Yankees51c240$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.273849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5a…9f70backed New York Yankees53c236.61$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.438035%28 W · 52 L-10.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed New York Yankees48c232$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.361,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed New York Yankees13c228.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.636021.7%13 W · 47 L-8.6wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-46.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed New York Yankees8c222.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0185148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed New York Yankees45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007553.3%40 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9848…54c9backed New York Yankees52c220$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked New York Yankees48c216$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6819951.8%103 W · 96 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Boston Red Sox49c211.35$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.791,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked New York Yankees47c210$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.71,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Boston Red Sox48c208$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1620848.6%101 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Boston Red Sox49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fc…b09fbacked New York Yankees16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed New York Yankees15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x330a…0e45backed Boston Red Sox51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Boston Red Sox52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3138252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ed…7f85backed New York Yankees53c189.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed New York Yankees53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed New York Yankees48c180.56$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8297944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x724b…7a7abacked Boston Red Sox49c180$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed New York Yankees47c180$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.61,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees48c179.98$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.792,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed New York Yankees47c170$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.91,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed New York Yankees48c167.18$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8851545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Boston Red Sox50c158.43$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2292046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Boston Red Sox63c156$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7237868.8%260 W · 118 L+25.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees19c155.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.882,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked New York Yankees48c151.57$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7514750.3%74 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked New York Yankees20c146$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5830040.7%122 W · 178 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed New York Yankees9c139$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4412954.3%70 W · 59 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed New York Yankees51c138.35$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5626444.3%117 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed New York Yankees15c130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ed…41dbbacked New York Yankees20c125.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed New York Yankees24c120.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.141,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93d…23d5backed New York Yankees17c120.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9119756.9%112 W · 85 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed New York Yankees37c117.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.64949.6%9 W · 85 L-30.9wins-0.33per pick42cpaid-79.5%equal weight21-0.26 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Boston Red Sox49c114.37$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8485949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed New York Yankees29c104.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7150954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Boston Red Sox49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0473143.4%317 W · 414 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed New York Yankees53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5326747.9%128 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.