Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs Solary (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb478e035198ccb2d9087932fe4cb7027e8c647ae91be9106e7fed040c0b52cdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Solaryof Misa Esports, Solary
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Misa Esports | 40c | 3,139$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.53 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…aeb1backed Solary | 60c | 2,045$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.89 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Solary | 60c | 741.76$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Solary | 55c | 300.16$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.07 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Solary | 58c | 233$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Solary | 61c | 190.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 905 | 37.5%339 W · 566 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Misa Esports | 42c | 159.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 557 | 44%245 W · 312 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Misa Esports | 41c | 106.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…2d58backed Solary | 59c | 102.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Solary | 59c | 89.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Solary | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Solary | 56c | 40.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…5614backed Misa Esports | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Misa Esports | 40c | 26.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs Solary (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5)Misa Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters PlayoffsSolary won
- LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 1 WinnerMisa Esports won
- LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 2 WinnerMisa Esports won
- LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 3 WinnerSolary won
- LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 4 WinnerSolary won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.