TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dplus KIA vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dplus KIAof Dplus KIA, OKSavingsBank BRION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x357e…2a0cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION11c13,815$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.5612132.2%39 W · 82 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked OKSavingsBank BRION15c5,925$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.8319041.1%78 W · 112 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Dplus KIA75c4,285$3,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.8485046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION19c2,957$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.2913543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aab…9d46backed OKSavingsBank BRION21c2,500$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x954d…8db6backed OKSavingsBank BRION9c2,220$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.641850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed OKSavingsBank BRION59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.9950569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Dplus KIA72c1,968$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.132,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION26c1,951$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011658.6%68 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Dplus KIA78c1,773$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.5913259.1%78 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Dplus KIA72c1,697$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.038438.1%32 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION26c1,603$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.551566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Dplus KIA75c1,400$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.384746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed OKSavingsBank BRION23c1,290$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.691,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf781…1b71backed OKSavingsBank BRION21c1,233$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974a…ee7bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION38c1,145$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.251030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed OKSavingsBank BRION24c1,089$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.643,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Dplus KIA67c1,081$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.336165.6%40 W · 21 L+8.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43ac…86d0backed Dplus KIA80c1,079$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.734755.3%26 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed OKSavingsBank BRION42c1,021$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.341,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Dplus KIA80c1,019$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0424…95ddbacked Dplus KIA80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001650%8 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed OKSavingsBank BRION20c998.33$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.681,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION20c900$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18029536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed OKSavingsBank BRION22c894.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20044335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20dd…4227backed Dplus KIA79c869$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a44…c9e1backed OKSavingsBank BRION21c843$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.03450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Dplus KIA60c832.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.9319640.3%79 W · 117 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a0…fdbbbacked OKSavingsBank BRION21c803$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b5…1e6fbacked OKSavingsBank BRION21c801$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked OKSavingsBank BRION20c777$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.41,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…aecebacked Dplus KIA79c720$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed OKSavingsBank BRION21c654.11$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.362,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION2c640$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2220%0 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed OKSavingsBank BRION32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Dplus KIA66c617.22$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5459952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed OKSavingsBank BRION22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13254129.9%162 W · 379 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ef…bdfebacked Dplus KIA79c577$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedfd…1432backed OKSavingsBank BRION44c570.06$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524139%16 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x874b…2357backed Dplus KIA79c558$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf051…a54cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION23c517.56$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.812944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+152.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x862c…4facbacked Dplus KIA71c509.86$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Dplus KIA77c435$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.053046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed OKSavingsBank BRION20c420.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1727452.2%143 W · 131 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2de…6e5cbacked Dplus KIA48c414.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2910560%63 W · 42 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4635…9f6fbacked Dplus KIA77c410$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.32360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Dplus KIA80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8021754.8%119 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed OKSavingsBank BRION28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11275738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb70…0785backed Dplus KIA79c368$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+51.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10e4…4113backed Dplus KIA75c329.87$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.924647.8%22 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked OKSavingsBank BRION19c315.02$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031435.7%112 W · 202 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Dplus KIA40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18021249.1%104 W · 108 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfacf…44adbacked Dplus KIA78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667544%33 W · 42 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x303b…53cabacked OKSavingsBank BRION11c299.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-84.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1483backed Dplus KIA69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8630155.5%167 W · 134 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Dplus KIA69c283.19$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7918744.9%84 W · 103 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed OKSavingsBank BRION21c255.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7610533.3%35 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e2…4293backed Dplus KIA79c245$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bbf…d298backed Dplus KIA79c245$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Dplus KIA41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.97869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed OKSavingsBank BRION33c225$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.552650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9a…3487backed Dplus KIA78c223.82$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.242584%21 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+23.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed5d…bc81backed OKSavingsBank BRION10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207250%36 W · 36 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Dplus KIA77c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.442852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Dplus KIA78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4414158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed OKSavingsBank BRION12c199.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248643%37 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked OKSavingsBank BRION18c199.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8912450%62 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9160…0492backed OKSavingsBank BRION21c189$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead7…cfe8backed OKSavingsBank BRION22c181.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405438.9%21 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d1…b357backed Dplus KIA79c169$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba4e…b333backed Dplus KIA79c153$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked Dplus KIA69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9339747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed OKSavingsBank BRION14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked OKSavingsBank BRION24c133.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3215756.7%89 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Dplus KIA79c130$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.317241.9%72 W · 100 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Dplus KIA80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked OKSavingsBank BRION23c122.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1131829.2%93 W · 225 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Dplus KIA75c119.6$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.541752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…501ebacked Dplus KIA68c117.57$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.578657%49 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcba2…26bcbacked OKSavingsBank BRION21c116.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.64520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION20c111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed OKSavingsBank BRION15c108.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8316934.3%58 W · 111 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe54d…b5a9backed Dplus KIA79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212948.3%14 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked OKSavingsBank BRION16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1656317.2%97 W · 466 L-16.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Dplus KIA79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2118046.7%84 W · 96 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029335.2%103 W · 190 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked OKSavingsBank BRION28c93.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.995551.7%494 W · 461 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed Dplus KIA80c90.45$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.091643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed OKSavingsBank BRION23c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.866445.6%303 W · 361 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed OKSavingsBank BRION22c81.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821655.1%119 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Dplus KIA71c80.86$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.454860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…9fb7backed Dplus KIA79c78.36$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4618255.5%101 W · 81 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION23c71.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.411,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a80…87d7backed Dplus KIA79c61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba48…907cbacked Dplus KIA69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9798163.8%626 W · 355 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Dplus KIA80c56.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3721060%126 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cb…9c55backed OKSavingsBank BRION29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Dplus KIA80c50.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.313571.4%25 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fdc…6d51backed Dplus KIA79c44.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.441573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed Dplus KIA67c37.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.192931%9 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.