Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4be73b28680471067cd306420e24ec8598d29dc12d036d948a5e026554c57e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 4,394$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.7 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 4,288$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.27 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.98 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 13c | 2,592$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.06 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 19c | 2,524$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 55c | 1,820$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…1f51backed Over | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 56c | 853.04$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.04 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 57c | 668.62$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.42 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 57c | 665.93$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 64c | 601.42$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.89 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 43c | 592$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 462.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 43c | 460$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…6f49backed Over | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 46c | 398.59$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 32c | 394.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.29 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 346.04$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 54c | 293.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 55c | 227$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 55c | 227$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 199.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 13c | 151.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 151.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b43…7829backed Over | 19c | 149.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 46c | 145.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 142.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 141.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 45c | 141$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 45c | 126.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 35c | 95.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 58c | 80.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80d…480abacked Over | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 56c | 63.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 56c | 63.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Over | 45c | 59.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 56c | 58.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 57c | 51.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Over | 23c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 56c | 44.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 45c | 43.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a968backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…07d7backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Under | 55c | 39.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 35.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…36a2backed Over | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 46c | 23.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 69c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…82bcbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…57a3backed Under | 55c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 56c | 18.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.