NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d02f43242c5735f1f929a3d252dbd4f973f1e3c17fe66abd7ee6b1dec5e83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1070…03b6backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e0…4659backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3700…3c06backed Under | 50c | 7,600$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…0880backed Over | 50c | 7,600$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Under | 30c | 1,900$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 70c | 1,780$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 51c | 1,311$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.37 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 64c | 1,192$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.78 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Over | 72c | 1,000$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.07 | 132 | 41.7%55 W · 77 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 973.74$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.08 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 42c | 970$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.27 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 28c | 357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Under | 53c | 130.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 53c | 117.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 27c | 113$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 75.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Under | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…7e8cbacked Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Under | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Utah: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. UtahUtah won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Utah won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.