MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d3e0933de168e9eab31f7db3ea698496ff7fd8c1085619471e6db5391ac5f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 12,617$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 19c | 10,688$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 76c | 6,378$4,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 5,384$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 2,758$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.41 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,973$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.57 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 1,445$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,003$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…3881backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 3c | 936.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 907$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 713.06$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 685.05$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 640.5$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 486.2$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.62 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 482.4$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 471.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 454.67$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.87 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 407.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 384.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 357.23$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 350$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 306.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 297$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 295.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 280.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 260$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 240.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.76 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 202.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 164.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 131.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 119.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 74.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 62.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 56.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 39.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 36.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 34.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 27.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 23.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 16.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 18.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 19.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.