MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c026a44c6aff715fb0db57eaf3bd2d713df419c3e4e044b2e712b4bf0c37a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 49c | 10,299$5,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,209.99 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,589.99 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 5,810$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,962.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 50c | 1,510$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.09 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 1,151$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 1,035$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.77 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 752.31$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.16 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 49c | 715$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.65 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 672.21$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 425.08$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 390$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 372.37$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 51c | 366$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 275.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Under | 52c | 194.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 175.19$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 171$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 149.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 52c | 106.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 52c | 59.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…dc02backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…0670backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 55c | 22.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 18.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 16.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 18.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 19.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.