NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5000a9d4a71421a1ed9b3f83881e149f14034bb675d077e52281082d8b15669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,824 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2167…9da5backed Under | 77c | 1,100$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 77c | 1,010$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.55 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 23c | 985$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.55 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…b689backed Under | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 80c | 539.79$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…ea44backed Under | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 22c | 130.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 91.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 24c | 86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 23c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Over | 18c | 69.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 78c | 45.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 181 | 50.8%92 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…7875backed Under | 78c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…aa77backed Under | 78c | 36.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…fbb3backed Under | 78c | 32.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc9…7a80backed Under | 78c | 30.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 78c | 26.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…6a45backed Under | 78c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Under | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…6787backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500d…b952backed Under | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed Under | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Senators vs. RangersSenators won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.