NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd494a6f1901807acbe9e2a1c0c22cadcfff4357e61b93c2facf8578080187a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Senators, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,055 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Senators | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.97 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Rangers | 57c | 2,511$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.64 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Senators | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Senators | 42c | 2,309$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.85 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rangers | 58c | 2,151$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.71 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rangers | 57c | 943.12$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.03 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Rangers | 58c | 710.34$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.34 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Rangers | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rangers | 57c | 595.52$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.93 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Senators | 41c | 580.76$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Rangers | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Rangers | 56c | 431.78$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.78 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Rangers | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Senators | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Senators | 43c | 382.79$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Senators | 41c | 359.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…c7dabacked Rangers | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Senators | 43c | 340$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Senators | 44c | 300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Senators | 45c | 268.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 47c | 229.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 45c | 217.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rangers | 58c | 207$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Rangers | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rangers | 50c | 187$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Senators | 57c | 174.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Senators | 41c | 169.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rangers | 57c | 168.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Senators | 47c | 158.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rangers | 57c | 157.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Rangers | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…85d5backed Senators | 43c | 117.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Senators | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Rangers | 59c | 115.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Rangers | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Rangers | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…db7ebacked Rangers | 53c | 101.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Rangers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…f55cbacked Rangers | 51c | 91.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Rangers | 58c | 89.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Rangers | 57c | 88.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Rangers | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Rangers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Senators | 43c | 73.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Rangers | 59c | 71.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c90…f87cbacked Senators | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Rangers | 57c | 69.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Senators | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Rangers | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rangers | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Senators | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Rangers | 59c | 59.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Senators | 41c | 50.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d6…145ebacked Rangers | 49c | 50.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed Rangers | 50c | 50.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Rangers | 49c | 50.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Senators | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…b152backed Senators | 42c | 47.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Senators | 43c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Senators | 44c | 45.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Senators | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…6a38backed Rangers | 52c | 43.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Senators | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Rangers | 59c | 36.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Rangers | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Senators | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Senators | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Rangers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Senators | 60c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Senators | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Senators | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Senators | 47c | 30.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rangers | 42c | 28.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Rangers | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Rangers | 58c | 27.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Senators | 41c | 27.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Rangers | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Senators | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Rangers | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49a…7c65backed Senators | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Senators | 59c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. RangersSenators won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.