NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe34f18ad7629de5bd88da089562bad84be4009e878df8baebab0f1d03b384722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,841 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55db…8db6backed Over | 31c | 2,803$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 46c | 2,503$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Over | 80c | 1,861$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.24 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 1,687$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.17 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 21c | 976.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.16 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 534.48$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.06 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 467.24$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.56 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 21c | 408.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.89 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 28c | 343.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Over | 55c | 333.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 53c | 300$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.37 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 79c | 299.44$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Under | 22c | 270$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 252.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 26c | 222.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.11 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Over | 79c | 197.43$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 78c | 197$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 37c | 176.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Under | 20c | 118.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…4badbacked Under | 23c | 117.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 77c | 104.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…db7ebacked Under | 44c | 100.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked Under | 63c | 94.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 64c | 94.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 22c | 79.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 74c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 71c | 77.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…f55cbacked Under | 38c | 62.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 54c | 57.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 38c | 49.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…94d1backed Under | 61c | 49.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 30c | 47.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Over | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 52c | 44.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed Over | 79c | 44.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -13.7wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 68c | 41.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 67c | 41.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…32eebacked Under | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 40c | 37.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d6…145ebacked Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4296…fca1backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 47c | 24.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Over | 66c | 17.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…0084backed Over | 79c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5this page
- Senators vs. RangersSenators won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.