UFC · resolved market
Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5286cecaebc03b23aff9b5c82185118bcac8f787d6244b96233a2da032a92e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Yes | 30c | 496.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 69c | 387.79$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…123bbacked Yes | 31c | 346.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 70c | 333.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed No | 70c | 302.05$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed No | 78c | 76.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Yes | 22c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…d79dbacked Yes | 29c | 71.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 69c | 38.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…be71backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Carlos Prates won
- Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.