UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e0ab1d809b44a5179613d9814433d1f872e09f17c7852b78daedfe71f107b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Under | 45c | 35,733$16,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,236.15 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 54c | 30,783$16,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,020.26 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…c191backed Over | 56c | 2,374$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.71 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 972$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.12 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…bea7backed Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Over | 55c | 517.01$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed Over | 55c | 320.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 54c | 279.79$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 54c | 161.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…1937backed Over | 55c | 134.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +254.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 56c | 119.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…3a1cbacked Over | 64c | 114.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 55c | 112.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…e99bbacked Over | 55c | 90.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b6…4787backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Under | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…f41dbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…fc36backed Over | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…476ebacked Over | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Over | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…1159backed Over | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 33.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…b543backed Under | 43c | 27.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…87e2backed Under | 44c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Carlos Prates won
- Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.