Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb52ae1915869139ac48df50ca45188069a9fe5cc2e18cb500c48cda943c0b66c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,637$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 589.77$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 419.52$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.26 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.25 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 269.79$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 230$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 185.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 56c | 179.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked No | 15c | 166.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 155$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 142.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 118.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes | 48c | 115.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 109.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 80c | 101.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 92.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 26c | 86.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 74.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 65.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 46c | 61.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 44c | 59.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 50.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 45c | 47.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 54c | 44.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 49c | 43.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfc…de8fbacked No | 56c | 40.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 40.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 35.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 33.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 65c | 30.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 45c | 30.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 53c | 29.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 53c | 29.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 53c | 28.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 67c | 28.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 60c | 27.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 50c | 22.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 54c | 20.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.