Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb52f16e0c822139d6842cbf009cb1cc3637c1b02f2c7050e480973e9fada8bc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 22c | 1,607$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.48 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 858.81$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 709.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 36c | 379.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 65c | 328.3$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 60c | 288.51$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 63c | 246.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 227.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 223.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 223.87$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 15c | 210.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 77c | 205.24$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 204.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…36e6backed No | 75c | 199.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 184.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 79c | 168.59$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.29 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 166.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 22c | 160.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 77c | 153.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…2a56backed Yes | 11c | 146.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 139.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 127.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 12c | 122.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 121.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 119.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 31c | 115.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 44c | 104.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 92.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 91.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 85.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 80.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x998d…34e0backed Yes | 27c | 73.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 24c | 72.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 20c | 66.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 65.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 29c | 62.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 61.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed Yes | 34c | 59.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ac…29d1backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 28c | 48.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 24c | 47.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 46.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 63c | 45.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 32c | 43.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 63c | 34.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 32.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 38c | 32.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 27.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…6052backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked No | 67c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…c51cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.