Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fe7e7a19f176053bfb6b8ab241268c90616a463ac98e4ae9fbd1a1f7b93695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 1c | 4,917$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 41c | 1,140$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.95 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 77c | 1,010$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 36c | 409.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.79 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 69c | 272.62$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 269.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 238.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 205.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 205.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 200.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 53c | 190.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 183.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 54c | 180.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 160.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 151.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 15c | 146.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 20c | 137$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 128.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 126.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 120.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 117.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 112.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 47c | 107.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 28c | 105.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 101.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 30c | 100.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 27c | 97.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 34c | 97.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 89.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 57c | 84.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 24c | 84.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 78.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 19c | 74.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 75c | 68.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 68.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 19c | 66.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 30c | 65.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 64.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed No | 38c | 64.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 78c | 63.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 63.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 61.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 32c | 61.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…c2cdbacked Yes | 33c | 60.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 35c | 59.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 22c | 52.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…bdc7backed No | 53c | 50.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 47c | 50.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 25c | 49.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 24c | 42.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 42.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 75c | 39.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 38.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 38.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 28c | 38.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 37.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 37.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed Yes | 30c | 37.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 32.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 70c | 31.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 51c | 28.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 28.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 75c | 27.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 46c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 72c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 74c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 74c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 76c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.