Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d425660fcd1320d1f30527e24bb46b566f00b6791ecaa5950d63135e7d7285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 834.6$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 790.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 2c | 759$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.82 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 32c | 720.74$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.57 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 704.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 37c | 445.21$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.35 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 26c | 360.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 12c | 241.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 8c | 233.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 8c | 228.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.07 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 8c | 224.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.99 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 59c | 216.82$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 213.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 199.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 16c | 186.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 178.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.97 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 13c | 172.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 161.69$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 17c | 133.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 8c | 132.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 51c | 99.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 32c | 96.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 13c | 94.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 75c | 92.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 87.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 12c | 84.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 79.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 67.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 50.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 43.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 30c | 39.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 78c | 38.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 45c | 30.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 51c | 29.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 68c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 18.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…051ebacked Yes | 74c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.