Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55c71bf3d228280a5a97e4e74ca1e3a733ed47da8362769df1cdf7c2625416d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ac…0a7abacked Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 67c | 1,299$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.22 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 962.5$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 62c | 776.46$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.68 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 705.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 69c | 624.8$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 40c | 509$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 8c | 471.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…3eb4backed Yes | 75c | 424.36$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 43c | 404.04$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 79c | 367.86$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 33c | 351.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.03 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 344.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 65c | 301.74$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 67c | 300.3$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…960abacked No | 21c | 282.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 22c | 255.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 72c | 251.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 22c | 246.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 245.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…9575backed Yes | 72c | 199.36$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 55c | 198.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 192.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 64c | 189.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 54c | 183.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 65c | 171.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 161.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 67c | 135.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 55c | 126.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed No | 34c | 110.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 13c | 103.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 55c | 91.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 39c | 88.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…2fbdbacked Yes | 63c | 81.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 69c | 78.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 64c | 63.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 52.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…58e6backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…f038backed Yes | 67c | 43.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 65c | 43.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 73c | 32.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…4dafbacked Yes | 66c | 31.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 38c | 29.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…151cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…d3ebbacked Yes | 76c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fac…c122backed Yes | 78c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 61c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 74c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or below on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or higher on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.