Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e867090adc15452b9e2166937cea178db890ef8254cc9eb61ae2e554c03b0a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 17c | 1,733$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 1,690$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,386$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 33c | 1,308$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.34 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 34c | 1,276$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.33 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 71c | 1,206$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.52 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,052$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 33c | 919.24$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 11c | 608.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 80c | 522.43$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.78 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 43c | 426.22$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 17c | 401.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 35c | 389.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 18c | 385.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 332.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 319.09$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 33c | 289.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 32c | 273.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 39c | 256.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 33c | 253.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…9575backed Yes | 40c | 251.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 34c | 236.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 34c | 218.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 12c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 28c | 198.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 30c | 190$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 77c | 189.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 188.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 33c | 172.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 42c | 161.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 63c | 159.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 27c | 149.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 141.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 107.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…6404backed Yes | 42c | 86.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 24c | 81.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…3eb4backed Yes | 39c | 78.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 30c | 74.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 61c | 74.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…960abacked Yes | 18c | 71.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 36c | 62.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 54.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…093fbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 45c | 45.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…0a68backed No | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…505cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed No | 71c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…a046backed No | 72c | 24.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 61c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or below on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or higher on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.