Wagner Seahawks vs. Chicago State Cougars

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5634d1dd4f9666e196d5f7d5b8d221bf5292ea27aa626826e1698e4c2f27ff6

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Wagner Seahawksof Wagner Seahawks, Chicago State Cougars
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,815 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x067f…e041backed Chicago State Cougars	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	301	39.2%118 W · 183 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Chicago State Cougars	16c	3,792$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.27	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Wagner Seahawks	50c	3,017$1,509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,508.73	841	47.4%399 W · 442 L	-13.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wagner Seahawks	65c	2,930$1,917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,013.89	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago State Cougars	42c	901.65$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.02	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Chicago State Cougars	35c	612.61$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.7	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd98f…5d9abacked Wagner Seahawks	54c	555.56$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.56	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago State Cougars	36c	502$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.29	1,540	41.3%636 W · 904 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Wagner Seahawks	50c	474.54$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.27	250	43.2%108 W · 142 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Chicago State Cougars	47c	463.64$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.63	126	42.1%53 W · 73 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chicago State Cougars	32c	462.39$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.86	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago State Cougars	48c	405.64$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.65	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Wagner Seahawks	51c	368.99$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.81	490	43.1%211 W · 279 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wagner Seahawks	71c	241.2$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.39	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Wagner Seahawks	50c	222$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111	1,074	47%505 W · 569 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c1…7fe5backed Wagner Seahawks	61c	218.43$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Wagner Seahawks	51c	216.27$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.56	529	28.4%150 W · 379 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Wagner Seahawks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	505	46.9%237 W · 268 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wagner Seahawks	51c	182$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.18	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Wagner Seahawks	63c	169$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.24	383	43.6%167 W · 216 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wagner Seahawks	51c	146.83$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.56	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Wagner Seahawks	76c	100.69$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.77	391	44.5%174 W · 217 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Chicago State Cougars	37c	100.05$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	190	55.3%105 W · 85 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c9…0dfebacked Wagner Seahawks	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Wagner Seahawks	60c	93$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	74	67.6%50 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	71cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Wagner Seahawks	51c	60.54$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.6	1,633	47.3%773 W · 860 L	+25.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wagner Seahawks	51c	60.42$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.75	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Wagner Seahawks	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Chicago State Cougars	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Chicago State Cougars	40c	37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	614	46.1%283 W · 331 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Wagner Seahawks	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf702…7cc8backed Chicago State Cougars	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	175	44%77 W · 98 L	-13.5wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Wagner Seahawks	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	67cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Wagner Seahawks	63c	23.97$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.97	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	69cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Wagner Seahawks	67c	23.1$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92e5…d129backed Wagner Seahawks	67c	22.28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.28	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…d269backed Wagner Seahawks	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Wagner Seahawks	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	668	31.4%210 W · 458 L	-43.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wagner Seahawks vs. Chicago State Cougars

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market