MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56466d92d03b720cdc16ef6f3491e5c366642d36a271902df29df6c0c9250cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,254 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6027…4320backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 4,503$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,733.47 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Baltimore Orioles | 1c | 2,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 1,620$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.19 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 749.21$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 606$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.54 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 592.64$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 591.86$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.14 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 584.36$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa80…f251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 422.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 313.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 271.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 235.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.08 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 231.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 185$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Baltimore Orioles | 8c | 152.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 142.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 134$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 125.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 99.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 85.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 76.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 64.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 45.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 44.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 34.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 24.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 23.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 17.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.