World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56b5c6ff0fa965a634424bdc41b9d20f974e157965e79355c1ad70c1bb25da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 926.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 7c | 857.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 5c | 720$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 14c | 435.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 4c | 417.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 411.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 368.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 357.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 29c | 335.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 6c | 312.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 4c | 260$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 14c | 256.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 8c | 229.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 218.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 188$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 167.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 21c | 166.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 158.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 158.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 16c | 154.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 148.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 143.88$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 138.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 72c | 133.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 117.71$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 76.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 14c | 71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 64.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 58.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 56.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 51.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 22c | 48.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 45.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 27c | 44.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 23.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 71c | 23.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 76c | 21.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 74c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 75c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b87…64a8backed No | 80c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.