TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,797
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,797 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes42c1,580$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.539337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes45c786.59$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.253243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c738$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.8135258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf352…a070backed Yes70c646.76$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes76c441.46$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.141464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes51c430.15$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.961631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes39c429.43$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26311636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes46c406.86$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.856731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No13c397.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.655317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No6c389.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8522111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c382$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes22c376.44$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes39c345.07$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.931741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c330.88$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes72c299.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8914842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c268.61$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3611039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No48c251.71$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8916051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No62c223.44$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.925030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes44c212.31$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.758636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes43c208.76$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.966336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes28c201.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.191827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c196.39$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No48c180.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.14850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No56c179.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4613748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes39c173.29$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3418638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes47c170.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.523345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c169$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5436055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No41c160.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9331152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c151.14$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4423459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c150.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes20c150.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.85957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No57c140.74$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.524358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c140.54$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.536462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No41c139$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c138.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes50c133.13$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes47c131.87$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.573641.7%15 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes22c125$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.54341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes33c123.83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.532653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes36c117.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes47c116$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.485749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No66c106.84$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0416755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes54c106$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2910733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No44c104.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2512249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No47c102.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.217560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No52c101$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0124637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.67058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked No77c99.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…0cf2backed No77c99.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No54c97.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.475141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes49c97.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.615827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No52c96.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.446445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes54c95.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.36944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No68c93.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2816254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes54c93.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed No77c89$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes47c88$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No46c84.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.456437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes20c75.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.371643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No67c71.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7314954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c71.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes29c70.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.12365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No53c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.11566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes32c62.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.751442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No57c62.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3616051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.226955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes47c60.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.732759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes56c59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.096241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8212238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes42c56.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7421844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No52c55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6326355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.355341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes24c53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.281526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes23c52.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c52.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3818035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e17…4dd9backed Yes77c52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes51c52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x507c…c876backed Yes47c51.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes37c50.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No54c50.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.448672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7782…f35fbacked No48c50.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98e9…bf91backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.22450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes25c49.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.492650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c49.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9717345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes72c49.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.013040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes34c48.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3418662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No70c44.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2714445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes29c44.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.31922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3250…baf4backed No68c44.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes53c43.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.328236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No46c43.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c42.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No51c42.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.483663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c41.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.833063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes46c41.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.