World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x405a0bd87daf4d093ba97fe189b0311df6e17205ba6c30cb11d01bb651b60541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 1,580$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.53 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 786.59$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 738$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.81 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 70c | 646.76$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 76c | 441.46$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 51c | 430.15$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 39c | 429.43$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 46c | 406.86$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.85 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 13c | 397.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 6c | 389.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 382$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 376.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.1 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 345.07$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 330.88$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 72c | 299.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 268.61$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 251.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 62c | 223.44$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 44c | 212.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.75 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 208.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 28c | 201.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 196.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 48c | 180.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 179.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 173.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 47c | 170.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 169$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 160.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 151.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 150.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 20c | 150.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 57c | 140.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 140.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 41c | 139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 138.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 50c | 133.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 47c | 131.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 33c | 123.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 36c | 117.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 116$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 106.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 54c | 106$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 104.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 102.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 54c | 97.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 49c | 97.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 52c | 96.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 54c | 95.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 93.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 54c | 93.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 77c | 89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 46c | 84.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 20c | 75.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 71.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 71.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 29c | 70.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 32c | 62.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 62.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 47c | 60.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 42c | 56.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 23c | 52.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 52.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…4dd9backed Yes | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 47c | 51.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 50.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 54c | 50.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 49.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 72c | 49.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 44.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 29c | 44.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…baf4backed No | 68c | 44.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 43.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 42.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 51c | 42.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 41.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 46c | 41.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.