Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56d5792b05d4b5df192c1e5691e940185b041b7fd25638d97fea111b74d3a20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 36,004$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 32c | 703.85$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.66 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 4c | 519.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 18c | 499.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.47 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 360.95$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 356.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 328.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 69c | 319.58$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 27c | 276.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 44c | 239.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 49c | 189.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 183.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 26c | 183.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 63c | 171.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 165.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 144.75$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 50c | 140.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 47c | 138.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 136.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 132.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 129.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 128.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…4a8bbacked Yes | 24c | 120.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 16c | 112.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 100.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 13c | 99.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…027cbacked No | 20c | 98.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 69c | 98.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 12c | 96.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 15c | 89.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 49c | 84.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 52c | 83.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 32c | 83.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 53c | 82.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 32c | 75.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 68c | 75.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 54c | 71.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 68.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yes | 21c | 68.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 43c | 66.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 79c | 61.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 33c | 60.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed No | 41c | 58.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 56.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 25c | 54.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 52.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 25c | 51.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 47c | 49.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 24c | 46.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 51c | 45.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 63c | 44.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 75c | 42.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 44c | 40.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes | 48c | 40.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…d735backed Yes | 46c | 37.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 54c | 35.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 55c | 34.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 33.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 41c | 33.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Yes | 45c | 29.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 61c | 28.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 62c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 67c | 27.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 76c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…5e55backed Yes | 55c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 69c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 54c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 80c | 17.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 68c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.