TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,458 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfe6…1bfabacked No0c36,004$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611741%48 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No32c703.85$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6659923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5b…292bbacked No4c519.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.592532%8 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0094…c496backed Yes18c499.31$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.471711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c360.95$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No56c356.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c328.24$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.4417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes69c319.58$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.38061.3%49 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No27c276.19$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4920342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked Yes44c239.72$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9815152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes49c189.22$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.218668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c183.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.582,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked No26c183.39$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9316840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x284e…674ebacked Yes63c171.78$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.973250%16 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No32c165.64$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.977,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes72c144.75$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes50c140.34$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9833349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes47c138.22$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.925836.2%21 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No29c136.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.674,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c132.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.859,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No54c129.6$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5129751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes20c128.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5220942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x991f…4a8bbacked Yes24c120.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.22742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d6…5401backed Yes16c112.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.11136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes48c100.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.017682.9%63 W · 13 L+27.3wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed No50c99.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes13c99.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2912226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e2e…027cbacked No20c98.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes69c98.35$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No49c96.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8612962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes12c96.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7560519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1854154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed Yes15c89.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8517949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes49c84.61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4372952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No52c83.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5383360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes32c83.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0911223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes53c82.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.652935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f93…480bbacked Yes26c76.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.986040%24 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No32c75.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3279040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes68c75.67$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2111644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf362…0505backed Yes54c71.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.678453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c68.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.495,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5112…fb73backed Yes21c68.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.931833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes43c66.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7643050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes79c61.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2349854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes33c60.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7113322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf78…c915backed No41c58.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.832218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-25.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c56.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes25c54.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8111025.5%28 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No66c52.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.452,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes25c51.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2526434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes47c49.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9447738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes24c46.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.922638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85e…79febacked Yes51c45.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.563253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed No63c44.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0517956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No45c44.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9921848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No75c42.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.041266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes44c40.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7414062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes48c40.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.982860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…d735backed Yes46c37.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick56cpaid+145.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes54c35.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.394854.2%26 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No56c34.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.594,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7445…268fbacked Yes55c34.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.762045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No69c33.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No41c33.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.732,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a2…3538backed Yes45c29.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.391625%4 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-29.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No61c28.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.513453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes62c27.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5335465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes67c27.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8323463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes76c25.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.041,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce7…5e55backed Yes55c23.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.481283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes69c22.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9121547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.064,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No74c20.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.924768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.442253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes54c18.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5313553.3%72 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c6…3eb8backed No80c17.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.113363.6%21 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick74cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd628…9356backed No71c16.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8413344.4%59 W · 74 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No61c16.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0134369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No71c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.434457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e0…19ccbacked No68c15.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44562.2%28 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.