Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5b37ba4f8047611a022a286c51af843cbf0e8ff0e03715dd9f7d5f6950427e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crystal Palace FCof Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, Crystal Palace FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 6,666$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 3,954$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 2,644$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 1c | 2,499$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…8a37backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…eb26backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 994$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…9893backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 984$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…c8b1backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 977$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…550cbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 948.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…ff7ebacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 938$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…e380backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 933$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f2…b2babacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 914$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9b…96bdbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 909$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…bf3ebacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 904$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7080…1f47backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 902.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa9…0a14backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 687.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 522.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 81 | 17.3%14 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 414.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 388.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 321.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…e897backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…e1a6backed Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.