Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x071978f0e6e8a8292d1f163592507826cec2d78edd3f005eeb18dacc1bdc5353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 10,813$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.83 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 21c | 5,475$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 5,378$4,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.61 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Over | 22c | 3,136$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 22c | 3,078$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.08 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Under | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…cdf1backed Over | 22c | 1,773$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 4c | 1,473$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 20cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 78c | 928.62$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 880.03$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.31 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 78c | 680.03$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.61 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 77c | 640.97$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.37 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 12c | 595.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…1a39backed Over | 4c | 594.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 23c | 567.27$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked Under | 79c | 555$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 78c | 510.08$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Under | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Over | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1a…71e1backed Over | 25c | 452.34$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over | 22c | 444.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 412.05$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 79c | 383.04$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 5c | 361.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 8c | 308.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 76c | 296.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Over | 23c | 264.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 14c | 255.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 168.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 75c | 166$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 22c | 165.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked Over | 9c | 129.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 79c | 113.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…a150backed Over | 25c | 102.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…673bbacked Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked Under | 75c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 24c | 71.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…daf7backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed Under | 78c | 65.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…0cd0backed Over | 23c | 51.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 79c | 39.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 78c | 33.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 79c | 32.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c5…ebc7backed Under | 77c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 78c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…92f3backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f3…51f6backed Under | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…0a60backed Under | 77c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…ea2cbacked Under | 80c | 19.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 79c | 14.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Under | 79c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…8b7ebacked Under | 79c | 13.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…13eabacked Under | 79c | 13.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Under | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.