Token Launches · resolved market
Will Trump mention $boden before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5c103c0e0c9d956c5a066dfc142c43fa8cf74a55db71a23a9a46d1547d4ecb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 14,427$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.94 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 5c | 6,261$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.38 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 7c | 4,721$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Yes | 23c | 4,427$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 3,933$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 6cpaid | +170%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 8c | 3,363$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…970ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,944$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 2,710$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.78 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…94e7backed Yes | 8c | 2,480$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,814$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…9fa3backed Yes | 8c | 1,750$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,569$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,381$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,353$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,262$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…8e05backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 6c | 909.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd078…7a94backed Yes | 2c | 750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…9ba7backed Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…d829backed Yes | 8c | 645.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…7905backed Yes | 8c | 622$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 7c | 600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…8116backed Yes | 5c | 598$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 10c | 525.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes | 6c | 516.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…958fbacked Yes | 10c | 510$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…8aa1backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…9472backed Yes | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…d9e7backed Yes | 11c | 263.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…daf6backed Yes | 11c | 254.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…0e7abacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4d…4535backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf76b…291bbacked Yes | 8c | 160.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…fba0backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756f…48f3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…5e2ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eda…f578backed Yes | 11c | 122.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8400backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.