La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60758f36a11bc28d97db7c5cf6f78cbe94107cc681a94d43d1d848f3f94434f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 9c | 2,473$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 1,968$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.29 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 63c | 1,350$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 33c | 435.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…1ec9backed Over | 65c | 399.86$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 77c | 389.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 23c | 382.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Over | 75c | 322.15$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 304.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Under | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 67c | 280.91$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 70c | 192.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 25c | 187.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 165.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 139.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 24c | 131.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…da18backed Under | 17c | 109.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 29c | 103.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 94.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Over | 76c | 89.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 69c | 72.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 169 | 62.1%105 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…dcafbacked Over | 74c | 60.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…d971backed Over | 71c | 60.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 56.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cc…2e39backed Over | 74c | 50.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…fb3bbacked Under | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 74c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 70c | 30.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137a…636dbacked Over | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed Over | 64c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd475…35c5backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.