Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60cf6214885d07e4f7ea1abadff32567be336f796d50387cb25732fb008506d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filsof Fils, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nakashima | 28c | 1,463$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.58 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Fils | 53c | 917.32$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.43 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…5ec9backed Nakashima | 53c | 778.23$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.46 | 440 | 18.9%83 W · 357 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Nakashima | 53c | 734$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.71 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nakashima | 26c | 676.88$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Fils | 71c | 433.27$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fils | 47c | 408.14$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.33 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Fils | 50c | 397.72$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.86 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…594fbacked Fils | 79c | 374.96$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Nakashima | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Fils | 72c | 273.11$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Fils | 68c | 222.12$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Fils | 75c | 198.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fils | 47c | 139.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…b34ebacked Fils | 47c | 105.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Fils | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Nakashima | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Nakashima | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Nakashima | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Fils | 49c | 98.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…f531backed Fils | 72c | 98.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1b…67d3backed Fils | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Fils | 71c | 96.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 588 | 59%347 W · 241 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Fils | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Fils | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Nakashima | 25c | 66.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Nakashima | 50c | 63.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Nakashima | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Fils | 52c | 55.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Fils | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Nakashima | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nakashima | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Fils | 80c | 44.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Fils | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Fils | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…b54dbacked Nakashima | 50c | 22.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Nakashima | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon NakashimaArthur Fils won
- Fils vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fils vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs NakashimaFils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.