Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb621ece8ac70d4ff33ff2441c5507de33438c9d6c7af8fa755874f1e3dcff9aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 6,960$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.69 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 3,691$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 10c | 2,402$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.59 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 1,429$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.35 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 13c | 1,320$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 1,314$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 1,307$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.65 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…dfe7backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 74c | 852$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…79f9backed Yes | 27c | 734.07$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Yes | 2c | 694.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed No | 76c | 661.84$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 661.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 552.94$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.83 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a13…db82backed Yes | 24c | 487.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 77c | 480.55$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 447.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.94 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Yes | 26c | 399.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…de1ebacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 24c | 305.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked No | 72c | 299.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 235.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed No | 76c | 179.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…00e6backed Yes | 27c | 178.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…e03fbacked No | 76c | 158.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed No | 76c | 100.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…ef3abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…73d2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 28c | 92.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…76b6backed No | 73c | 67.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…4e43backed Yes | 28c | 56.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Yes | 25c | 54.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Yes | 29c | 52.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed No | 74c | 44.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 77c | 42.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…61d1backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 26c | 38.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 38.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 74c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 74c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 74c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 74c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 74c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 70c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked No | 74c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.