Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4443dcbe196f9b0e343fea976084c6d607db7dfa5b5e712a754f37a75e5fee13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76bc…db0abacked Yes | 24c | 2,742$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…c02bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,708$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed No | 76c | 2,329$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.95 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 2,325$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.99 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 1,635$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.39 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,608$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 24c | 1,215$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 1,090$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.38 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 854.51$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.74 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 76c | 683.01$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 396.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 24c | 334.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 77c | 325.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed No | 77c | 302.6$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 213.33$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed No | 77c | 197.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 22c | 194.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 23c | 185.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 76c | 184.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 182.56$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 76c | 165$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 136.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 115.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc285…d26ebacked Yes | 25c | 101.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 96.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 23c | 92.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 21c | 81.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed No | 76c | 75.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…76b6backed No | 76c | 64.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 76c | 61.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 76c | 54.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…ccf1backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…298bbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a3…6b1cbacked No | 77c | 38.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 76c | 32.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 78c | 31.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 76c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed No | 77c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…5c8abacked No | 76c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…3973backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.