Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6243b88ac59cf0cf66c37fbcfce4dcf4eea020b9e0f5aec5902f4fefaca1e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMBC Retrieversof UMBC Retrievers, Binghamton Bearcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Binghamton Bearcats | 51c | 15,732$7,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,971.78 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 9,267$4,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,726.04 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed UMBC Retrievers | 56c | 6,343$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,807.44 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Binghamton Bearcats | 44c | 3,580$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.2 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMBC Retrievers | 51c | 1,614$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.64 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed UMBC Retrievers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed UMBC Retrievers | 54c | 859.13$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.17 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Binghamton Bearcats | 52c | 768.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.53 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UMBC Retrievers | 53c | 614.71$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.18 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed UMBC Retrievers | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Binghamton Bearcats | 45c | 310$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed UMBC Retrievers | 68c | 246.63$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UMBC Retrievers | 53c | 226.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed UMBC Retrievers | 54c | 215$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Binghamton Bearcats | 46c | 211.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Binghamton Bearcats | 44c | 129$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Binghamton Bearcats | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed UMBC Retrievers | 50c | 80.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Binghamton Bearcats | 47c | 57.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Binghamton Bearcats | 47c | 53.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Binghamton Bearcats | 47c | 48.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UMBC Retrievers | 51c | 45.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Binghamton Bearcats | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed UMBC Retrievers | 53c | 30.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-11.5)this page
- Binghamton Bearcats vs. UMBC RetrieversUMBC Retrievers won
- Binghamton Bearcats vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 138.5Over won
- Binghamton Bearcats vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 139.5Over won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-12.5)UMBC Retrievers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.