MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6252c4c7fa0ef811d76a03278aa427b1b131e4bd74125ec59287ec0a15b58c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.81 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 48c | 930.67$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.95 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 756.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 47c | 711.6$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.15 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 708.82$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.59 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 467.45$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 46c | 326.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.35 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Under | 46c | 274.9$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 243.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 47c | 215.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 49c | 98.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 13c | 86.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 51c | 75.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 52c | 62.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 28.2%94 W · 239 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 54c | 26.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.