MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a945769b3db1c4921074d104f2ebf1aabc4832c76a53c086e61c2c1f8f93834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 59c | 3,385$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.16 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 1,073$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.43 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,014$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Houston Astros | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 51c | 939.96$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 923.25$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.99 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 58c | 894.28$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Houston Astros | 62c | 639.54$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 638.7$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 621.72$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.74 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 580.98$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 498.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.03 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 444$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 401.58$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.13 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 397$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 364.65$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Boston Red Sox | 10c | 361.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 15c | 338.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 237.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 232.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 210.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 200.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 150.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 147.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 132.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 125.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 91.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 88.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Houston Astros | 59c | 83.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2445…ff62backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 61.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…bdbabacked Houston Astros | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 74c | 47.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Houston Astros | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 43.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 40.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 39.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…4b5ebacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 37.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 34.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Houston Astros | 60c | 29.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Houston Astros | 74c | 28.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Houston Astros | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 26.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Houston Astros | 61c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 3.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.