South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb625b3b94517e3f7814c34192347c5df6b8058355abe8cf575973f38760264d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 42c | 13,315$5,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,554.67 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 71c | 12,736$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,736.34 | 322 | 49.4%159 W · 163 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 11,883$3,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,543.89 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Over | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 4,268$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.58 | 5,873 | 45.3%2,663 W · 3,210 L | +96.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 4,205$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.55 | 3,874 | 38.4%1,486 W · 2,388 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 27c | 2,207$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 221 | 52.9%117 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 1,884$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.86 | 2,666 | 39.1%1,042 W · 1,624 L | -35.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 69c | 1,274$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.72 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 75c | 1,191$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.34 | 846 | 34.6%293 W · 553 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 62c | 796.46$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.58 | 2,434 | 34.7%844 W · 1,590 L | -28.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 629.81$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 1,341 | 42.8%574 W · 767 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 30c | 309.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 605 | 56.4%341 W · 264 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 30c | 305.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 960 | 55.7%535 W · 425 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 61c | 256.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 20c | 249.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 343 | 41.1%141 W · 202 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 29c | 242$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 449 | 61.7%277 W · 172 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 79c | 215.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 74c | 210.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 527 | 51%269 W · 258 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…a8bbbacked Under | 10c | 181.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 149 | 55%82 W · 67 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 147.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 2,185 | 43.5%950 W · 1,235 L | -58.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 68c | 146.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 511 | 41.3%211 W · 300 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…eb9dbacked Under | 29c | 135.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 23c | 119.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,331 | 50%665 W · 666 L | -15.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 32c | 113.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 271 | 65.7%178 W · 93 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 31c | 100.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 30c | 93.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 29c | 90.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 657 | 61.3%403 W · 254 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 77c | 53.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 949 | 45.3%430 W · 519 L | -27.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 29c | 51.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 78cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…20d5backed Over | 78c | 38.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Over | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 77cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 683 | 48.2%329 W · 354 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 74c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 0.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 5.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.