Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62fac87babb703ce5afe3022aada26a23ffbb8520a915fc2e9f9fbe769e4bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof PlayTime, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed PlayTime | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Execration | 44c | 603.2$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.57 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Execration | 48c | 432$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.7 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Execration | 40c | 384$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed PlayTime | 47c | 341.39$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked PlayTime | 34c | 315.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked PlayTime | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed PlayTime | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Execration | 72c | 247.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Execration | 53c | 225$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Execration | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed PlayTime | 35c | 170.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Execration | 71c | 141.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…b5e5backed PlayTime | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed PlayTime | 12c | 132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Execration | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed PlayTime | 41c | 118.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed PlayTime | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked PlayTime | 27c | 85.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked Execration | 73c | 68.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed PlayTime | 48c | 56.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed Execration | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Execration | 56c | 48.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Execration | 56c | 43.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Execration | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Execration | 50c | 37.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…555abacked Execration | 73c | 33.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Execration | 50c | 21.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…e43ebacked Execration | 72c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd921…737bbacked Execration | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerExecration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.