Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb63bca8031055e4f14b91e66a9c46d82c783eb8fee60924c29f6ca6d1dbd4641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cristianof Mboko, Cristian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Cristian | 52c | 2,978$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.45 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mboko | 47c | 1,944$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.89 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Mboko | 52c | 1,082$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.76 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cristian | 48c | 812.83$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.67 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cristian | 48c | 630.17$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.22 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Mboko | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Mboko | 52c | 380$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Mboko | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…cb4fbacked Mboko | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cristian | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Mboko | 49c | 120.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Cristian | 49c | 114.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Mboko | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Cristian | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Cristian | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Mboko | 53c | 64.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…5de1backed Cristian | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…2356backed Mboko | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0071backed Mboko | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cristian | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Mboko | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 643 | 58.8%378 W · 265 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Cristian | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5)this page
- Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline CristianVictoria Mboko won
- Mboko vs. Cristian: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mboko vs. Cristian: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs CristianMboko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.