Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb64294b4c3d5e9c4b58dd543a03c16f5cc995aa89b0fb9858d7567c0282682f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 54c | 6,703$3,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,602.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 36c | 3,187$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.14 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 34c | 2,779$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.85 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,165$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,669$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 6c | 1,460$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.04 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,457$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.23 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,159$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 3c | 1,061$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,030$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 1c | 995.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 24c | 711.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 16c | 604$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 565.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 559.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…ef8ebacked Yes | 23c | 533.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 416.37$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 349.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.99 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 348.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 46c | 342.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 5c | 308$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 7c | 308$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 4c | 304.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 7c | 261.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 220$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 218.53$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 205$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked Yes | 27c | 191.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 191.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 180.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 8c | 152.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 150.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 58c | 136.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 135.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 63c | 133.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 132.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 123.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…2035backed Yes | 16c | 121.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 120.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 43c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 27c | 113.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 59c | 110.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 40c | 105.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011a…4decbacked Yes | 25c | 104.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 44c | 104$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 30c | 75.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 59c | 72.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 67.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…cde9backed Yes | 75c | 66.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 21c | 50.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 51c | 48.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50d…2557backed Yes | 79c | 44.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 43.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…929ebacked No | 69c | 43.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 30c | 41.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 28c | 39.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 50c | 37.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 40c | 31.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 36c | 29.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 23.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.