South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6491025e600c8fe0369ca14249bb27033a0ad6e684d61ca7535a83e9e9fdf76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 4,042$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.45 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Over | 70c | 3,007$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 70c | 553$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 489.64$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 462.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 67c | 447.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.61 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 29c | 399.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Over | 66c | 278.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 212.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 72c | 151.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Over | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…efa6backed Under | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 125.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 30c | 119$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Over | 70c | 112$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 95.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 25c | 61.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 67c | 50.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Over | 67c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Over | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 72c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Over | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…981abacked Over | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Over | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…09a1backed Over | 74c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.