South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x062c465c5724a8b821b24a5216a38916710e1b5a3ce3fe85e342aea0d315207b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 7,354$3,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.56 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Over | 50c | 7,283$3,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,641.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 3,301$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.42 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 65c | 2,160$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 40c | 950$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 72c | 938.06$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 69c | 871.97$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.97 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 684.02$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.89 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 667.1$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.87 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 30c | 579.52$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 31c | 337.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 44c | 304.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 57c | 265.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 55c | 238.91$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -9.0wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 190.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 185.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 58c | 174.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 58c | 142.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 34c | 134.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 23c | 132$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 112.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 54c | 111.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…7f04backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…efa6backed Under | 52c | 85.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 30c | 85.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +121%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 23c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Over | 23c | 84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2a05backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 42c | 73.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 77c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 28c | 67.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…12debacked Under | 62c | 43.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 39c | 43.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 41.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 53c | 38.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 28c | 36.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 60c | 29.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Under | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Under | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Under | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Under | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Under | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…fba6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Under | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Under | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.