South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb56e8a87f492ae7b743fbead3923d6ce9fc7784a3bdeaf185920d28c2541718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 6,913$5,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.73 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.89 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 14c | 1,399$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 901.17$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.14 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 434.66$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 80c | 395$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 9c | 212.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 43c | 185$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Over | 16c | 166.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 43c | 150.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Under | 55c | 144$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -9.0wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 43c | 115.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 37c | 106.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 25c | 92.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Under | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 29c | 54.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 28c | 40.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 74c | 23.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…bdb1backed Under | 56c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.