Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb64a0161e80ecdecca39aac1599403069bac7632d89badd3293dfd108de26e66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Freiburgof SC Freiburg, RB Leipzig
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fa…4c6abacked SC Freiburg | 18c | 1,542$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +441.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed SC Freiburg | 19c | 1,259$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.78 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed SC Freiburg | 32c | 586$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.48 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed SC Freiburg | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed SC Freiburg | 60c | 424.68$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.42 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked SC Freiburg | 24c | 419.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.78 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked RB Leipzig | 77c | 272.56$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.46 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed RB Leipzig | 64c | 161.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RB Leipzig | 69c | 160.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed RB Leipzig | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed RB Leipzig | 43c | 110.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked RB Leipzig | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed SC Freiburg | 26c | 81.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed SC Freiburg | 18c | 74.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RB Leipzig | 66c | 71.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed RB Leipzig | 36c | 48.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked RB Leipzig | 49c | 48.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked SC Freiburg | 51c | 41.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c71…a55abacked RB Leipzig | 36c | 41.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed SC Freiburg | 34c | 39.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed RB Leipzig | 71c | 36.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed RB Leipzig | 39c | 36.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked RB Leipzig | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed RB Leipzig | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RB Leipzig | 54c | 19.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.