Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a86125b01bd9c8f39c3392f2c256e0565c2528bc3850d9ea7eab2ee8944cf32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 9,623$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,151.2 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 5,233$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.94 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 2,563$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.46 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 73c | 2,093$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.73 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 1,813$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.29 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 16c | 1,247$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.12 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Over | 43c | 1,137$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 77c | 693$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.44 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 16c | 483.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 350.5$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.38 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Under | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 55c | 307.92$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 16c | 291$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 12c | 276$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 241.09$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 76c | 185.79$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 180.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 53c | 172.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 26c | 164.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 33c | 145.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 142.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 55c | 129.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 26c | 127.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 53c | 106.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 57c | 104.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 78c | 78.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Over | 55c | 78.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 26c | 75.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 76c | 74.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 76c | 73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 49c | 71.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 26c | 60.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 57c | 57.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Over | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 78c | 51.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 59c | 50.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 76c | 49.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 49.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Over | 26c | 45.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3834…d360backed Over | 25c | 44.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +303.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 27c | 39.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 77c | 31.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Under | 74c | 26.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 76c | 24.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 46c | 21.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 75c | 17.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 77c | 16.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 77c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 74c | 13.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 76c | 13.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 0.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.