TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38f0…2768backed Under55c131,708$72,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,720966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over50c20,863$10,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,440.852,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over45c19,426$8,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,684.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over42c17,790$7,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,346.216761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over44c13,270$5,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,378.7310041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over45c8,684$3,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,819.6226445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over45c8,209$3,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,544.263,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over44c7,379$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,162.6338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d4e…6478backed Over34c6,723$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,435.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Over45c6,400$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5206549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70dc…1783backed Over46c6,288$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,416.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ab…97b6backed Over44c6,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc8…8255backed Over45c5,224$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,873.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Over45c4,800$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6405843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over47c4,144$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.0528345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over43c4,013$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.365870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Under53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1205952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd181…5136backed Over41c3,867$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Over45c2,800$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5406744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Over45c2,400$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3205944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Over44c2,368$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.085349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over40c2,143$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.33714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-64.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Over45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1002948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under12c1,831$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.574318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over44c1,626$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.283948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over45c1,600$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8806647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Over45c1,600$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8805349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under56c1,531$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.5369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.959854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over44c1,477$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.272445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over44c1,450$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.6216846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under58c1,277$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.7128755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Over45c1,200$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6608158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over45c1,200$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6605745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Over45c1,200$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6606549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Over45c1,150$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over35c1,061$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.4111142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Over45c1,040$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5726446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over45c1,040$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5725745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Over45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5508950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Over45c999.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5502133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Under53c999.89$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.943050%15 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over44c924.09$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.5629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over45c900$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4958851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over45c900$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4958949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over39c821.27$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.121,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under59c780.58$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.5942046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over41c759.96$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.229850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over42c694.02$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over41c657.1$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.694050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over42c640.43$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.458547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over42c640.43$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4520845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Over45c640$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3525743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over45c624$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.25646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Over45c623.99$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.197050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under59c622.43$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.3233047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Over44c560$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.65451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under72c555.63$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over43c473$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.018451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over41c469$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.921,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over39c449$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.899459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Over39c425.9$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over43c422.21$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.643532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under58c419.47$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.273658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Over47c419.45$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.311861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Over45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2205046%23 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Over45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2204544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2205650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under66c294.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.569248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Over28c286.07$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.976030%18 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.94269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Over41c242.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.182568%17 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked Under53c214.89$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.891225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over46c214.77$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.274969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under60c213.33$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1282015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1163053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over41c199$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over45c182.35$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2920645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed Over47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.41540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over41c179.8$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.397455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under57c173.68$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.418554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over37c169.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.14533.3%15 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Over45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885149%25 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under54c150.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over39c141$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.019838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Over44c137.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.063145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Under59c135.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over47c123.52$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.267959.5%47 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Over47c122.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.692352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Over41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Over51c117.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.666046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Over41c113.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.04650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Under53c111.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.131442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Over45c103.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.154339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Under53c99.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.133429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over43c95.83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4114755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over43c93.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.023554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa422…d210backed Under54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.