NFL · resolved market
Will the Bengals grow up?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66cf1e60938601bc67870601eaff39ea78dbde5a64b8c23b39af9b0360aedb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 8,079$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a76…a01dbacked No | 15c | 6,328$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 73c | 2,186$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.41 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 317.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 78c | 255.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…c5ddbacked Yes | 66c | 224.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 67c | 217.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 35c | 148$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 68c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6f…cca0backed No | 37c | 108.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 68c | 76.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed Yes | 77c | 64.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 28c | 47.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…e1cdbacked No | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…d51cbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.