Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb679cdf207a691fe3fddbc5d8c86fddf960d2fa20b702063d1908111ae270740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,887 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 4c | 12,700$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 8c | 959.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 25c | 894.68$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.07 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 781.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 724.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 693.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked Yes | 4c | 653.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 5c | 586.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Yes | 10c | 560.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 534.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 27c | 516.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 496.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 22c | 485.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 451.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 437.66$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 351.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 33c | 343.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 338.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 20c | 337.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 318.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 313.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 9c | 298.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 292$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 69c | 290.71$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 30c | 242.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 33c | 239.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 234.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 234.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 72c | 222.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 216.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 212.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 10c | 211$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248f…c38dbacked No | 75c | 199$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 197.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 173.31$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 171.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes | 16c | 160.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 19c | 155.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 26c | 154.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 71c | 141.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 77c | 133.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 18c | 122.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…e051backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 26c | 117.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 114.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…cb5dbacked Yes | 29c | 114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 113.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 70c | 111.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 32c | 110.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 109.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 14c | 106.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 32c | 105.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 25c | 100.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 15c | 100.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 96.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 26c | 95.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 77c | 90.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 20c | 87.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 78.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 73c | 68.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 67.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 76c | 62.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 27c | 59.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…f3fdbacked No | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…9b20backed Yes | 38c | 52.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 52.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 51.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…f68abacked Yes | 22c | 50.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 49.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 48.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 78c | 47.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 70c | 45.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…158dbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 44.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…ae87backed No | 68c | 44.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 42.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 41.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ed4ebacked Yes | 30c | 38.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee7…2081backed Yes | 33c | 36.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…100fbacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.