TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,653 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x030a…aad9backed Yes1c9,605$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes2c5,599$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248f…c38dbacked Yes1c4,401$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…1ab4backed Yes3c4,106$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes28c1,512$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.9316738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes1c1,262$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1724932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes8c799.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2365625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes20c599.9$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.983732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b9a…05f1backed Yes15c500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes26c482.54$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ba…3954backed Yes7c467.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c420.84$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No71c409.94$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c404.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c356$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.266,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes19c336.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.165228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e6…6282backed Yes20c313.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c313.29$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.143,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c306.33$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes30c265$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.38636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4c…7864backed Yes44c264.92$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.521266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes33c249.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2332044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes25c237.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes13c227.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes29c217.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.316737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c203.13$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes40c200.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.911,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c7…496bbacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes16c199.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes31c196.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.651,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes14c194.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No67c193.91$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9125362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes55c193.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4819037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes62c189.66$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1183540%14 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No75c182.8$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.081,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked No75c181.64$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.643751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c174.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes20c170.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7141845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes18c170.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes22c165.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.642737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac3…bafbbacked Yes29c160.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3332444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No79c142.57$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.942,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes33c140.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6738547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c133$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes19c132.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes22c125$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.926827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c116.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.017,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No67c112.21$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2159440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No74c104.87$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6432548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3160…6e54backed Yes31c101$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5417433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes12c99.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.981625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes20c98.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes13c95.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7122236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes18c94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.924332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No62c87.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.311,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes25c79.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes21c78.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0919617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.352,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No68c76.19$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.292,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c73.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.571,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No58c72.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.336648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5445…f68abacked Yes37c70.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.08922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No57c70.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked No79c69.26$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.726033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f7c…b118backed Yes22c68.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes23c66.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b4a…255dbacked No77c64.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.681030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab8…73d9backed No78c64.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes34c63.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5718255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes19c63.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1218035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c62.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No79c62.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.831,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes22c62.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4114915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.618842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc07…2860backed Yes22c59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x955a…ff6abacked Yes27c56.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.284259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc744…955cbacked No64c52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.485971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes22c51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2de…8209backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103171%22 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.745244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No70c48.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No67c45.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9713453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No50c44.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8967…692bbacked No71c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8c…d084backed Yes30c40.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.343231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c39…bf9fbacked No48c40.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.78683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x074a…769ebacked No79c37.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0823547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda87…c003backed Yes29c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No78c35.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7411872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3402…df19backed No71c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.