TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,826 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc88a…7e26backed No1c1,287$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes43c1,158$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.7916738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No73c776$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.2542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes63c649.31$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.261,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No66c608.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.984744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes26c592.23$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.173732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No10c497.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No30c474.55$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4865625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes45c464.82$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes35c456.23$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.3356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes74c354.59$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.946,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c345.31$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.524,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c329.21$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.313,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes74c327.59$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.726737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No7c320.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3136819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c302.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes21c280.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6625536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes49c271.64$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.881,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c239.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c237.66$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes30c233.07$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.121,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No32c227$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes37c224.18$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.89728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes36c195.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.892445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes30c191.53$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.918220.7%17 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes63c189.74$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.744332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes56c186.53$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.929929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes16c154.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.945228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No68c152.65$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7332652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No66c150.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac3…bafbbacked Yes68c146.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x72bd…1a9ebacked Yes33c140.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270b…9b20backed Yes51c137.01$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.011428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes45c133.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No58c128.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.741,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes25c125$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.862,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes18c120.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6626827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc063…678bbacked Yes35c113.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.47812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…1ab4backed Yes77c112.15$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes27c109.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.562020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No70c107.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes33c107.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.816033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes34c106.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9432044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes38c100.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.945453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No74c100.72$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7541070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.997521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.991625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8217433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes17c99.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.984520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes31c96.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2811637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.157728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes61c94.42$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.453540%14 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b9a…05f1backed Yes38c91.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c85.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.124,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes43c81.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5840935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes60c75.68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5124932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes28c75.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.21729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No39c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5757232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x070d…6ff7backed Yes19c75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.755334%18 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c74.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.462,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes42c74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.143920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No68c73.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.984757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c62.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes34c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.418842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c57.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.127,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes32c57.61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2625549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes31c52.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.055850%29 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes66c51.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes33c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4954232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No68c48.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3132133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c71backed No61c48.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes39c48.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7842438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x074a…769ebacked No66c45.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes33c44.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7645127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes36c44.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes36c42.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.232133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No74c42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ee…aa3cbacked No27c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ba…3954backed No50c41.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b66…3907backed Yes36c41.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.475339.6%21 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes36c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes45c40.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.182642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5445…f68abacked Yes35c39.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.77922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No67c39.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.512329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0035…f917backed Yes34c39.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9193…3e0dbacked No65c37.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e89…a2bdbacked Yes37c36.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes42c36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0559818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf484…3775backed Yes34c35.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb622…9cbdbacked No65c35.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x955a…ff6abacked Yes39c34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.864259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd12…1cdcbacked No65c33.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes32c31.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.265,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes51c31.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b5…48c3backed Yes39c29.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.