Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd812354043eb5abc6709dd7dbae774193c20a014386cd929c2934a92bb55e0d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,826 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 1,287$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 43c | 1,158$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 776$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.25 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 649.31$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 66c | 608.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.98 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 26c | 592.23$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.17 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 497.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 30c | 474.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 45c | 464.82$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.49 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 35c | 456.23$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.33 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 354.59$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 345.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 329.21$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 74c | 327.59$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 320.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 302.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 21c | 280.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.66 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 49c | 271.64$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 239.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 237.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 233.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 227$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…aad9backed Yes | 37c | 224.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 36c | 195.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 30c | 191.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 63c | 189.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 56c | 186.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 16c | 154.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 152.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 66c | 150.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…bafbbacked Yes | 68c | 146.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…1a9ebacked Yes | 33c | 140.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…9b20backed Yes | 51c | 137.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 133.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 128.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 18c | 120.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…678bbacked Yes | 35c | 113.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…1ab4backed Yes | 77c | 112.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 27c | 109.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 70c | 107.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 33c | 107.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 34c | 106.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 38c | 100.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 100.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 31c | 96.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 61c | 94.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…05f1backed Yes | 38c | 91.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 85.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 43c | 81.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 60c | 75.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 28c | 75.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 74.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 68c | 73.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 62.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 57.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 32c | 57.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 31c | 52.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 66c | 51.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 48.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 61c | 48.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 48.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…769ebacked No | 66c | 45.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 33c | 44.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 36c | 44.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 36c | 42.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ee…aa3cbacked No | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ba…3954backed No | 50c | 41.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 45c | 40.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…f68abacked Yes | 35c | 39.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 67c | 39.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0035…f917backed Yes | 34c | 39.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…3e0dbacked No | 65c | 37.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…a2bdbacked Yes | 37c | 36.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…3775backed Yes | 34c | 35.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb622…9cbdbacked No | 65c | 35.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…1cdcbacked No | 65c | 33.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 31.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 31.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b5…48c3backed Yes | 39c | 29.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.